Baseball's boring division races
Posted: Sunday, June 24, 2007 11:13 PM
For the past couple of seasons, we've been talking about how baseball has become infected with parity. On June 24, 2006, 19 of the 30 major league teams were either leading their divisions or within six games of the lead.
The NL West didn't have a powerhouse team, but all five teams were separated by 3.5 games. In the NL Central, four of six teams were separated by 6 games. Only the NL East was out of control, with the Mets holding an 11-game lead over Philly.
In the American League, three of five East teams were separated by 4 games; in the Central, two teams were a half-game apart; in the West, all four teams were within 6 games of each other.
It was a great situation as the game moved into the heart of the schedule – a lot of teams in contention and a lot of reasons for a lot of people to head to the park
So what happened? On June 24 this year, there is exactly one team within 6 games of first place in the American League – that's Cleveland, which is 2 behind Detroit in the Central. Minnesota is 6.5 out; no other team is closer than 8 games from the division leader.
In the National League, it's a little better. In the East, thanks to the Mets' recent swoon, two teams, Philly and Atlanta, are within 4.5 games of the lead and Florida is 6.5 out. But in the Central, Milwaukee's closest pursuer, Chicago, is 7.5 out. In the West, four teams are within 5.5 games of the lead.
In the course of one year, we've gone from 19 of 30 teams being within 6 games of the lead to 12 teams that close. Throw in two teams that are 6.5 out, and it's still 14 – five fewer than last year.
One race was pretty much over last year. This year, the Red Sox have an 11-game lead in the AL East, the Angels are 8 games up in the West and the Brewers are 7.5 up in the Central. That's not totally locked up, but it's getting close.
And the teams that are leading this year come from all over the salary list. The Yankees, the top-spending team, are 11.5 out, but the Red Sox, proud owners of the second-highest payroll, are playing terrific ball.
The No. 3 team, the Mets, are hanging on the first place in the NL East, and the No. 4 payroll, belonging to the Angels, are in first in the AL West. But the No. 5 White Sox are having an aswul season. The Dodgers are No. 6, and they're contending. But the Mariners, the seventh-highest payroll, are languishing far behind. The Cubs are next and we know what their season has been like, although they are 7.5 behind the Brewers.
The Tigers are ninth-highest, and they're in first place. But the Orioles, with the tenth-highest payroll, are just plain awful.
So of the top ten payrolls, five are in very good shape, one – the Cubs – are hanging in there, and the other four are hopeless.
After that, the contenders come from all over. The Phillies are the 13tth payroll, but the Diamondbacks are fifth from the bottom, at $52 million. Other bottom ten payrolls that are playing well are the Indians and the Padres, while the Brewers' $71-million payroll is less than half what Boston is spending - $143 million – and $107 million less than the Yankees.
I don't know what any of this means, although I'm sure there's a SABRE member who probably can figure something out.
What do you think?
