Zambrano isn't worth it
Posted: Friday, August 17, 2007 7:59 AM
Even in baseball, $18 million a year is a lot of money, and to make that much, you’d expect a player to actually be good. But when it comes to pitching, good is a relative term.
Apparently, the Cubs are about to commit $91.5 million over five years to retain the services of 26-year-old starter Carlos Zambrano. And if you’re a Cubaholic, you have to congratulate your team on being willing to do what it takes to keep the team’s best pitcher.
Still, what exactly has Zambrano done to merit that much cash?
OK, he was really good in June and July this year, but he’s yet to win a game in August, and lately opposing hitters are treating him like a human batting tee. He’s got great stuff, and in seven seasons, including two partial years at the beginning of his career, he’s given up just 7.4 hits for every nine innings pitched.
But he’s also given up more than four walks per nine innings, and despite his great stuff and .605 winning percentage, he’s never won more than 16 games in a season. (Go here for his career stats.) He should do better this year; he’s already 14-9, but 13 to 16 wins a year is what he’s been giving the Cubs.
It’s most appropriate that he’s compared himself to another $18-million pitcher, Barry Zito. At the age of 24, Zito won 23 games for Oakland and the Cy Young Award. For the four years after that, his ERA kept going up and he never won more than 16 games. (See stats here.) Just the same, when he hit the free-agent market after last season, the Giants gave him $18 million a year, an investment that so far has returned an 8-11 record and a 5.13 ERA.
At the time, few people said the Giants were foolish for spending so much money on Zito. And you won’t hear anyone ripping the Cubs for giving a similar amount to Zambrano. If they didn’t pay him, plenty of other teams would have been lining up to give that much or more.
I have to congratulate the Cubs, too. He’s the best pitcher, he’s just 26, and they can’t afford to lose him.
Just the same, that’s nearly Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez money for a guy who’s never finished higher than fifth in the Cy Young balloting. It’s a superstar salary for a guy who can be frustratingly erratic.
Logic says a guy with his record isn’t worth it. The market for pitchers says the Cubs got a bargain.
