Do Pats really want home field throughout?
Posted: Thursday, November 15, 2007 11:36 AM
The better things are going, the more some people worry. These are the glass-half-full folks, the ones who can watch the most gorgeous sunset ever seen on earth and worry about whether it means it’s going to rain the next day.
It’s not a coincidence that a disproportionate number of such people find their way into journalism, and the gloomiest of them all find themselves on the sports desk. Hence the e-mail I got yesterday from our most excellent NFL editor, Mike Miller. I quote:
I haven’t heard a lot said about it yet, but should [the Patriots] be concerned about having home field in New England in the winter? What happens to that vaunted passing attack when it snows? I know the winters have been mild there the last few years, but what kind of logic is this? How do the Patriots adjust for this and is this what they’ll probably spend their time working on the remaining weeks of the season (improving the run game and making the defense better)?
See what I mean? Here’s a team that’s threatening to run the table, a team that, like Tiger Woods and Roger Federer, plays a game with which the rest of the world is not familiar, and still we can spot the smudge of cloud on an otherwise clear horizon.
But that’s our job – to look ahead and try to imagine all the possibilities. You can bet that Bill Belichick and his coaching staff have had the same thoughts, because that’s their job, too.
And this happens to be a good point. This is a team that lives by flinging the ball to all points of the compass, a team that really should be playing indoors, the better to take full advantage of its strengths.
I’m not sure I’d lose any sleep over it if I were a New England fan. Nor would I take excessive hope from it if I were an Indianapolis fan looking for any sliver of hope.
It’s true that teams that play in cold-weather climates do better in the playoffs if they have smothering defenses and great running games. The Pats’ defense is good, but not as dominating as it used to be in the team’s previous Super Bowl runs. And the running game is pretty good, but not dominant; the Pats are a passing team.
But they have always been a team that got its big plays not on the ground but in the air. That was true when Tom Brady was getting the benefit of the tuck rule in the snow against the Raiders, and it’s true now. So it’s not as if they’ve ever had the benefit of knowing they can grind it out when they have to. For the Pats, come rain, sleet, snow, fog or sunshine, they win because they know Brady will make the plays with his arm.
If they get the Colts in January in Foxboro and the weather is miserable, I have a feeling New England will know what to do. They were shredded pretty good less than two weeks ago by Indy’s Joseph Addai, and the next time they meet, Bill Belichick will have figured out a way to stop that from happening again – if he has to. Remember, Addai ran wild, but the Pats won the game.
I think the Patriots welcome bad weather, because they’re used to playing in it and the Colts aren’t. As hard as it may make it for Brady to throw, it will be even harder for Peyton Manning. And, while home field isn’t that great an advantage in the playoffs, you still want your crowd behind you, making it difficult for the other guys to hear the snap count. Home field won’t help anyone beat a team that’s markedly better than you are, but it will help you win the tight ones.
It will be a factor, and it’s something to think about, especially for those of us who are paid to think that way. But this Patriots team has always won by passing and they’ve always won at home, no matter what the weather. I don’t think it will be a problem.
