How'd those predictions pan out?
Posted: Saturday, August 23, 2008 2:17 AM
On the eve of the Games, I wrote a column listing seven story lines you could count on in Beijing and two pregame fears that wouldn’t pan out. In the interest of journalistic integrity – something I wouldn’t be as interested in if I’d been wrong about everything – I thought I’d go back and see how close my predictions were to what actually happened.
Let’s start with the story lines I guaranteed would be big.
China vs. America
China built up its Olympic Team for these Games for seven years with the intention of dethroning the United States as the reigning spots superpower. I said the United States would hold on to overall supremacy, but it would be close. Many others disagreed. In total medals, which is the way the USOC keeps score, I was right. As I write this late Saturday afternoon in Beijing, the United States has 103 total medals and China 91 with not enough medals left to close the gap. But China will win the gold-medal race, with an insurmountable lead of 47-31. The surprise of the Games is Great Britain holding down fourth place behind Russia in both gold and total medals.
Michael Phelps
It didn’t take more than two functioning brain cells – a number I easily have doubled – to say Phelps would be the biggest story.
Drugs
I predicted that there would be a major positive test, but so far just five people – and four horses – have been sent home, and none of them made headlines around the world. I’ll claim victory though because of the controversy over the age of the Chinese girl gymnasts. Call it age doping.
The Weather
I said it would be a constant story because of Beijing’s famous smog. I was totally wrong there. Once we had some rain and the smog went away, it’s barely been mentioned.
Women’s Gymnastics
As with Phelps, it didn’t take a brain surgeon – or even a brain at all – to say this would be a big story. But it was, and I’m claiming victory.
Judging Controversy
We had a big one here over the tiebreaker that gave gold to He Kexin over American Nastia Liukin. Boxing was also rife with displeasure about the officiating, and taekwondo didn’t come out so well, either.
Politics
This is the one I missed entirely, although there is still time for somebody to prove me right. I said it was inevitable that an athlete would make – or try to make – a political statement. I was wrong. Outside the venues, the Chinese government’s determination to snuff out any peep of dissent was a story, though.
And now for the preGames story lines I guaranteed would be non-issues once they lit the big Olympic Bic.
Terrorism
I suggested that a six-pack would have more chance of surviving a weekend in a fraternity house than a terrorist would have of disrupting these games. The Chinese government whipped up fears before the Games so that it could justify its tight security measures, but it was a total non-issue.
No Fun Olympics
Again, there were a lot of stories about how the government was going to crack down on nightclubs and bars and would enforce the city’s universally ignored 2 a.m. closing hour. I said people would have fun, and I can assure you, they did. Bars stayed open all night, nightclubs throbbed with decadent music, and even an old fogey like me was approached by a lovely young woman who wanted to get to know me better, if you catch my drift, right outside of my hotel.
It wasn’t a perfect prediction, but on the whole, I’ll take my Olympics over the one put on by the U.S. track team.
